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That chΔnge you requested…A detour down the road to serfdom. Protein for the body politic… by Cody Ross  The Biden-Harris regime has presided over shocking and sickening losses in wealth, comfort and purchasing power for a broad swath of Americans (except for the swanky elite, of course) since sinister forces stuffed ole’ JB into the White House back in 2021. RESULT: the middle class got smoked, culture got crushed, and the rule of law got trampled by an evil, elderly hologram controlled by a few fascist desperados and scheming apparatchiks.  ‘Bidenomics’ — what the Soviets called perestroika before that commie construct collapsed — is to shovel on more debt, that is, borrow more from the future to pay for boondoggles today. Consider this: US indebtedness is now totally outta control, adding $1 trillion every 100 days. With a whopping $1.6 trillion in interest expense alone ($290K per taxpayer), this exorbitant line item cannibalizes a huge fraction of America’s tax base (even more than defense!).  The Biden-Harris regime, btw, gleefully added $7.9 trillion to this nasty debt wad – the most ever! Moreover, this excessive load compounds at a f*^king fatal rate, as Elon Musk emphasizes when doing pressers on the campaign trail. It amounts to an explosive $36 trillion in total debt outstanding, with unfunded liabilities to infinity – an insane fiscal burden certain to hijack dreams, roil bond markets and crush future generations.  The Dems have been writing trillions in IOUs to stealthily bail out the banks, line their own pockets, launder proceeds through Ukraine, and perpetuate the Potemkin-Ponzi state. This is a runaway freight train laced with financial WMD, picking up speed with zombies and deep state bitches at the controls.  So why are financial markets so darn fizzy? Definitely NOT because of the DEMS' economic depredations! Investors are anticipating an electrifying Trump blitz come Nov 06 (barring the Biden-Harris regime’s further use of hitmen or black ops against Mr. Trump).  Always super-prescient, the market is both a voting machine and discounting mechanism separating signal from noise. In this case, the signal is a harbinger of good things to come courtesy of MAGA: a market-friendly economic, tax and regulatory regime; a ceasefire between those scrappy-ass slavs over in Ukraine/Russia; Israeli dominion over their jihadi-worshiping, death cult neighbors; a tourniquet for the hemorrhaging, wide-open southern border; and many merry incentives, supply-side shocks and foreign policy improvements. Trump & Co. will also be a bulwark against Chinese irredentism, globalism and the hybrid warfare tactics employed by the CCP, the GRU and the IRGC.  Markets are growing ebullient by the day and have been for a while. Players with skin in the game are anchoring on an all-out Trump victory. All pullbacks should be bought…and the controversial NASDAQ-listed DJT, a proxy for Trump’s political alpha, is a coiled spring — a potential meme asset/parabolic instrument that could produce convex returns and steer the investor train deep into alphaville. Other risk assets that are poised to move up are a certain EV maker of cybertrucks, bitcoin, select energy equities, defense plays, utilities and precious metals.  We are expecting a further swoosh to the upside in US equity markets, underpinned by MAGA’s accelerating ascendence, the phase out of ‘Bidenomics/Kamalanomics’ and the return of a semi-rational, ‘America First’ economic doctrine. Global money flows are pouring into America while punters – at home and abroad – are seeing a new dawn for macro positioning and event vol. Liquidity is surging with bullish sentiment quickening. The greenback should stabilize at around 106 (DXY), inflation should inevitably zig-zag downward over the next year, crypto/blockchain tech will do better than before and the 10 year bond will hang out at around 5+%. Critically, Trump’s win means America’s election integrity has mojo again and the economy can recalibrate to a more productive setting.  Contrary to the left’s claim that another Trump admin would sow chaos and seek revenge, when re-elected next week, Trump will seek rejuvenation and redemption, and only aim to prosecute/penalize the well-known pettifoggers and saboteurs acting against America. Financial markets are looking excitedly forward to pro-growth policies and less polarization; citizens are keen to restore principles of individual liberty, free inquiry in the pursuit of truth, and having fun again! Oh, and NO more censorship. Fundamentally, a capitalist-based social contract and the celebration of Western Civ would be a welcome redux. Democracy, meritocracy, the rule of law, and the consent of the governed will be en vogue again  Note: as Trump crushes the comp in the polls, the markets post incremental, often impressive, gains. Hence, the new highs in the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ, and stratospheric returns emanating across a wide range of speculative instruments. Hedge funds, traders and investors are thematically long DJT (‘Dark Maga’) and short Dark Brandon.  And so it begins…markets tend to mutate, complexify and manifest in non-linear fashion. Ditto politics and geopolitics. The corruption of China Joe and kooky Kamala (along with their deep state cronies and lawfare ninjas) has driven the supernatural elevation of DJT to divine, martyr-like status. In fact, the Golden Child is transforming minute by minute into an archetypal legend — a demigod, actually — with his very own, always unbridled cosmic energy. As one commentator on X put it, “DJT has jolted the whole Gestalt and paved the way for a rejuvenated body politic. The USA never wanted to gurgle down the drain of history. We’re not ready to roll over and die. We’re waking up from a Dem-induced coma, starting to remember who we are.”  Like it or not, DJT is an injection of amphetamine into a zonked out polity. Markets are noticing. The zeitgeist is getting zesty. Conviction is thickening. The Fourth Turning is now. Dark Maga is everywhere…The Trump trade is on. And Melania will be back, too🔥!  
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 BANG! SWOON! And here we go – a dramatic delta as we saw several asset classes post parabolic gains/dramatic declines as inflationary pressures abate, rates remain iffy and geopolitics inflame. Across the board there were more losers than gainers at year's end in USD terms, with Brent crude oil (+6.1%) topping the list and the Hang Seng (-9.2% in USD terms) the largest decliner. The S&P 500 (+1.7%) and Nasdaq (+1.0%) eked out gains but the Russell 2000 (-3.9%) was lower. Indeed, most global equity and bond markets were slightly lower in USD terms on the month due to a stronger dollar. Returns in many European markets were slightly positive in local currency terms. On the last day of January, we saw a notable risk-off tone. That was because of a slightly hawkish FOMC versus market expectations, as well as the news that New York Community Bancorp (-37.67%) had reported a loss as they raised their expected loan losses on commercial real estate. That meant the KBW Regional Banking Index (-6.00%) saw its largest decline since the regional banking turmoil last March. In addition, Aozora Bank (-21.49%) in Japan reported losses overnight that were also because of US commercial property. US indices shot up 9.13%, while developed international markets rose 8.28%, demonstrating a renewed appetite for risk. Fixed income also rebounded strongly as yields declined. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index returned 4.54% for the month. Hedge funds posted their best monthly return of the quarter at 3.27%, effectively capitalizing on shifty/stochastic dynamics. Commodities underperformed, however, declining -4.39% as demand softened for industrial materials. Meanwhile, managed futures struggled with the sharp reversal in stocks and bonds, losing -3.44% on the month. One diamond in the rough was Russia's MOEX, which, despite 'sanctions' and systematic demonization by Western nation-states, generated respectable equity returns (+5.6%) along with a stable ruble. Bizarrely, cocoa futures posted stratospheric gains (+97%). Ditto uranium (+94%), OJ (+51%) and potatoes! Lithium and rhodium got smoked, losing -79% and -63% respectively. The ultra-complacent VIX is now a coiled spring and China is poised to self-destruct. Looking ahead, diversification across investment approaches remains prudent amid ongoing macro uncertainties. Signs of peaking price pressures shifted consensus across multiple markets and strategies. But as always, time will tell how conditions continue evolving. Just stay far away from China - the 'dark star' for FDI/risk capital - as it is now utterly uninvestable .   |
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